The number of students going to the US for further studies has plummeted to levels seen a decade ago, and the number of visas approved has halved. Is the US still the top choice for international students?

Looking back now, I think I was quite lucky.

In May of this year, Xu Yixing successfully obtained a student visa to study for her undergraduate degree in the United States. Unexpectedly, a series of news reports about international students being hindered from entering the country or having their visa interviews conducted began to emerge.

Xu Yixing is a recent graduate of a public high school in Shanghai. He loves physics and received an offer of admission to Cornell University's College of Arts and Sciences in November 2024 through the early application process.

“From the end of last year to the first half of this year, the signals released by the United States have made studying in the United States full of uncertainties. I applied for my visa interview in April, and I was very fortunate to pass the interview on the first try when I submitted my application materials in May,” said Xu Yixing.

Not all Chinese students planning to study in the US are so lucky. In recent days, social media platforms have been flooded with posts asking when US student visa interview appointments will resume.

On May 27, local media cited a cable signed by Secretary of State Rubio, stating that the Trump administration was considering requiring all international students applying to study in the United States to undergo social media vetting. In preparation for implementing this requirement, the administration had instructed U.S. embassies and consulates around the world to suspend new interviews for student and exchange visitor visa applicants.

A few days earlier, an ongoing "battle" between Trump and Harvard University further heightened the uncertainty surrounding studying in the United States. The repeated policy changes have made this year the most agonizing one for families planning to send their children to study in the US.

Entry ban hits Harvard

On May 22, the Trump administration announced a ban on Harvard University admitting international students; on June 4, Trump signed an executive order suspending entry into the United States for foreign citizens studying or participating in exchange programs at Harvard University, citing Harvard's refusal to provide information on international students with bad or criminal records, which posed a national security risk.

Although a U.S. federal judge issued a temporary restraining order the following day, temporarily preventing the Trump administration from implementing the entry restrictions imposed on the 4th, the series of measures still had a significant impact on international students.

“When the news first came out, everyone was shocked, and some students were even panicked because they might lose their legal status in the United States at any time,” said Jiang Fangzhou, a student at Harvard Kennedy School. “I just got my dorm room for next semester through a lottery recently, and now everything is still up in the air. We are still waiting for further rulings from the court.”

Thomas, a staff member at Harvard Law School, told reporters that in response to the Trump administration's travel ban imposed on June 4, the president of Harvard University has sent out internal emails for two consecutive days stating that international students' right to enter the United States and study at Harvard University has been restored until a court hearing is held on June 16 to make a ruling. However, Harvard students who are about to begin their summer break are hesitant to make the decision to return home. "Newly enrolled students don't know if they can come either; things are changing every day, and it's hard to predict."

Xu Yixing also has friends who are pursuing their doctorates at Harvard. He told reporters that the school is currently not advising his friends to return to China, in case they are unable to enter the United States after the summer break.

The number of students going to the US for education has dropped to levels seen a decade ago, while expenses have surged.

For many families of prospective international students across the ocean, the unpredictable news that changes almost daily is eroding their resolve to send their children to study in the United States.

Zhang Ying's child will graduate from high school next year. Since he took AP courses in a domestic school, applying for undergraduate studies in the United States is the most suitable option. However, this October, she decided to let her son try the Oxford University entrance exam first.

“We will still apply to American universities, but it certainly won’t be the only option anymore,” Zhang Ying told reporters. Her son’s school has basically had all their applications for US student visas approved this year. Although she hasn’t heard of any problems with US visas yet, some students who have received offers from American universities are still rushing to apply to schools in Hong Kong in case of any changes before they go to the US to study in September. The school is also reminding students who will graduate next year to make multiple preparations when applying to universities in the second half of this year.

The changing attitudes of Chinese people towards studying in the United States are also reflected in the data. According to the Open Doors Report published annually by the National Education Association, in 2022, the number of Chinese students studying in the US fell below 300,000 for the first time, and the number continued to decline in 2023. In the 2023-2024 academic year, India surpassed China to become the largest source of international students in the US, while the number of Chinese students studying in the US dropped to the level of 10 years ago, a decrease of 95,000 from the peak in the 2019/2020 academic year. However, the average expenditure per Chinese student in the US surged (US,000 per year, including tuition and living expenses), an increase of US,000 year-on-year.

At the same time, the number of Chinese students obtaining student visas from the United States is also much lower than it was ten years ago, with more than 270,000 in 2015 and less than 100,000 in 2023.

This is closely related to the tightening of US visa policies. In recent years, the US government has implemented stricter scrutiny of Chinese students majoring in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields, citing "national security" concerns. Some students have been denied visas due to "potential technology leakage risks."

At the same time, the U.S. visa refusal rate for international students is also rising. In 2023, 253,355 international students were denied visas to the U.S., accounting for 36% of all student visa applications, a record high, compared to only 15% in 2015.

Furthermore, studying in the United States is becoming increasingly expensive. Zhang Ying told reporters that tuition fees for undergraduate studies in the US are increasing by 15%-20% annually, and some schools now charge over 0,000 per year.

Xu Yixing also told reporters that the tuition for the university he will be attending this year is ,000, and with accommodation, meals, insurance and other expenses, the total cost will be ,000.

Yang Shuo, whose child is already in high school in the United States, told reporters that tuition and living expenses for studying in the US have been soaring in recent years. Currently, the annual tuition and living expenses for the top 30 private universities generally exceed ,000, with only a few public universities being relatively cheaper, such as Purdue University, which costs around ,000. Meanwhile, finding employment in the US is becoming increasingly difficult, and the success rate of the job lottery has also decreased significantly.

For international students, if they want to work in the US after graduation, they need to obtain an H-1B work visa, which is obtained through a lottery system.

The head of the US branch of a large Chinese company told reporters that the application fee for employers to help international students apply for H-1B visas has increased from to 0. After being selected in the lottery, employers also need to write case studies for law firms explaining why the position is not open to US citizens.

Yang Shuo's friend's daughter also went through the H-1B lottery after graduating from American university. There's only one chance to win each year, and she only got selected after three tries. And that was before 2019; the success rate for H-1B visas has become even lower since the pandemic.

Furthermore, if graduates return to China for employment, the halo effect that once surrounded "returnees" is gradually diminishing. All of this makes some families hesitant to send their children to study in the US, feeling that the return on investment is increasingly low.

An executive in charge of human resources at a domestic listed company told reporters that most domestic companies now do not strictly distinguish between whether a graduate graduated from overseas when recruiting fresh graduates, but they will look at the university they graduated from. "There are too many resumes now, so we can only quickly screen them by their first degree, but we won't give extra consideration to those who have returned from overseas. Of course, we still welcome graduates from prestigious foreign universities, especially in industries such as finance and high technology, where there is still a clear preference for returnees from top universities."

Reassessing Study Abroad Destinations

Entering 2025, the number of Chinese students applying to US undergraduate programs appears to be rebounding. According to data released by the Common App, the online undergraduate application system, in March of this year, for the 2024-2025 application season ending March 1, the number of applications from Chinese students saw its first increase after three consecutive years of decline, rising 6% year-on-year, and surpassing the number of applications from India.

However, this unprecedented "battle" between the Trump administration and Harvard University has dampened the enthusiasm of some families sending their children to study in the United States.

According to three surveys conducted by the study abroad education platform "Guyu Planet" in November last year, April and May this year, among families intending to send their children to study in the United States, asking "Do you still plan to study in the United States in the future?", only 18% reconsidered their study abroad plans in November last year, rising to 49% in April this year, and reaching 51.9% in May, with anxiety soaring by 2.89 times.

In a survey conducted in early May, the top three concerns about studying in the United States were Sino-US relations, security issues, and visa policies.

Regarding the potential impact of the unpredictable US study abroad policies, an admissions officer from a private international high school in Shanghai told reporters that students applying to the US are now generally considering applying to multiple countries. "Some students who are going to study in the US this year have chosen to keep their offers from the UK and Australia, just in case."

According to a report released this year by global education organization Pearson, more than one million Chinese students study abroad each year. In 2024, traditional study destinations such as the UK, the US, Canada, and Australia will still dominate, with more than two-thirds of respondents listing one of these four countries as their top choice for studying abroad. However, emerging Asian study destinations are considered to be cheaper, safer, and have smaller cultural gaps.

Regarding whether some families have considered other countries due to the uncertainty of US policies, Gia Lyu, an advisor at the international study abroad consulting agency Crimson, told reporters that some families have indeed begun to consider other countries as alternatives, but overall, the number of Chinese applicants to the US remains the highest. Parents and students will conduct a comprehensive evaluation from multiple dimensions such as safety and cost-effectiveness. "The US remains the country with the highest concentration of top-tier educational resources globally, but in addition, the UK, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore are gradually becoming key considerations for them."

In recent years, universities in Hong Kong have offered generous scholarships to attract international students. A graduate from Boston University told reporters that she gave up applying to American universities for graduate studies after receiving a 70% scholarship from the University of Hong Kong. "I think the University of Hong Kong is quite sincere in offering such a high scholarship."

Zhang Ying also sensed from several discussion groups for parents of students studying abroad that Hong Kong universities are becoming increasingly popular. "This year, a bilingual school offering the IB program (with a focus on American universities) had more than 70 students apply to the University of Hong Kong, and more than 60 received offers. In previous years, there were definitely not so many."

However, one of Zhang Ying's friends, who applied to both the University of Hong Kong and American universities, declined an offer from the University of California, Berkeley, after receiving an offer from the latter at the end of March.

An American education professional who graduated from the University of Pennsylvania told reporters that Ivy League universities and the University of California system remain the top choices for Chinese students studying in the United States. Taking Trump's alma mater, the University of Pennsylvania, as an example, the number of Chinese students has remained around 2,000 in recent years, including undergraduates and graduate students.

“The biggest risk of studying in the US right now is the uncertainty of what policies Trump will introduce. But if you value higher research and teaching standards, there’s no use being anxious now. Moreover, if you do your undergraduate studies in China and then apply to study for your master’s or doctoral degree in the US, you may face stricter visa scrutiny,” Xu Yixing told reporters. He plans to travel to the US in August and is prepared not to return to China for a short period of time.

The aforementioned executives of listed companies believe that parents should not consider the return on investment too much when it comes to studying abroad. Instead, they should view it as a consumer expense and think clearly about the ultimate goal before sending their children abroad: is it for their children's employment? For a diploma? Or for their children to broaden their horizons?

Julia Zhou, a senior US strategy consultant at Crimson Education, told reporters that the differences in how families evaluate where to study abroad or even whether to study abroad at all are huge. "For example, I've mentored students living in China, Australia, Thailand, Singapore, the UK, and the US. Some of their considerations even involve their family's history, including their parents' life and work experiences. Others consider future career plans, while still others look at whether the student's personality aligns with the destination. For instance, the US emphasizes general education, and most American universities allow students to change their major after undergraduate studies, whereas it's much more difficult to change majors after being admitted to a UK undergraduate program."

Recently, the "2025 Blue Book on Chinese Students Studying Abroad" released by the Chinese Service Center for Scholarly Exchange of the Ministry of Education showed that the popular study destinations for Chinese students are becoming increasingly diversified. Although the United States has fallen out of the top three "most popular study abroad countries" for the first time, it is still the country with the most Chinese students.

In the blue book, the Ministry of Education ranked 28 popular study abroad destinations based on three dimensions: quality and employment, safety and cost, and trust and cooperation, using 25 sub-indicators. The top 10 in the overall ranking are: UK 8.9, Singapore 8.7, Canada 8.5, USA 7.8, Germany 7.5, Switzerland 7.4, Australia 7.3, Denmark 7.2, Netherlands 7.1, and Japan 7.0. [At the request of the interviewees, Xu Yixing, Thomas, Zhang Ying, and Yang Shuo are pseudonyms.]