US Stock Trading Experience Compilation – Updated 2019.1

This article is based on my own experience and may not be applicable to all environments. Discussion and comments are welcome.

• Reversal: Number of rising days + Volume of rising price > Previous reversal
• Conditions for chasing a stock that opens high:
  • The previous day's bearish candlestick
  • No turning back within 30 minutes of opening
• The market is strong:
  • The S&P 500 is above its 50-day moving average.
  • More than 50% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average (market depth).
• Potential rebound: Deep market recovery
• HYG: Leading Indicators of the SP500
• Trading days: Wednesdays and Thursdays often see reversals or significant changes.
• Retreat strategy:
  • Rebound after a 50% pullback
  • A one-third pullback followed by a gradual rise
• Gold and oil are inversely correlated in the long run.
• If a stock gaps up on the fourth day after three consecutive days of gains, it's best to reduce your holdings.
• Gold-related: GDX/GLD
• Oil-related: XLE/USO
• Buy on dips:
  • Day 1: Large bearish candlestick
  • Day 2: Small bearish candlestick
  • Day 3 and Day 4: Small candlestick chart
• Opportunities at the 200-day moving average:
  • It shouldn't stay below the moving average for too long.
  • A large bullish candlestick broke through in 2-3 days.
• Olive's Averaging Down Strategy: Initially, use a small amount; upon breakout confirmation, increase the amount; on pullbacks, continue to use small amounts.
• 8-day moving average opportunity: Buy when the price retraces to the 8-day moving average.
• The four major indices will eventually converge and will not diverge.
• Short selling:
  • At least once lower high
  • 2.5 or more time windows: Hourly chart down, 4-hour chart down, daily chart flat.
• US stocks generally have a bottom followed by a rounded top; however, this does not apply to gold, and the opposite is true for A-shares.
• Hourly chart pattern confirmed:
  • Futures trading can be conducted for 8 hours.
  • Stocks can be held for 48 hours
• A significant price increase usually follows the third lower high.
• There is at least one VIX panic every quarter, and usually 4-5 times a year.
• The fifth wave and the first wave are consistent in both time and space.
• Tax Selling: A sector that is weak at the end of the year will become even weaker, but will rebound at the beginning of the year.
• A good upward trend will not fall below the 8-day moving average.
• Rules for buying gold:
  • If the first day is a bearish candlestick, and the second day gaps up and holds above that level for an hour, a significant upward move is likely.
  • Variant: Hold for an hour, fill the gap in the afternoon, and reclaim on the third day; this will result in a significant increase.
• After seven consecutive days of sharp rises or falls, the trend will reverse on the eighth day.
• Check ETF holdings: spdrs.com
• USD/CAD is a contrarian reference for crude oil.
• After the third lower high or higher low, there may be a significant rise or fall.
• Adding to a position should only be done when there is a profit.
• Trend line confirmation: Three points confirm the trend line; two points are only approximate.
• Bottom fishing: Stocks are at their lowest point, and so is VIX (Virus).
• A rise driven by market depth is sustainable.