Year after year—2021

It felt like I was waking up from a dream; it was already mid-March 2021. I hadn't started writing about this year after year, not because of a bad memory, but because I simply couldn't bring myself to write. This year at home made me realize the true meaning of mental health and burnout. I lived without a soul, without any thoughts, with ideas that vanished in an instant and no desire to put them into practice. I felt like a useless person, unable to even muster any interest in games.

When I was a teenager, I was full of emotions and would write down my thoughts from time to time. Every day I would think of something different to put into practice. But all of that energy disappeared last year, and my life became a cycle of eating, drinking, working, and sleeping.

Looking back on last year, aside from returning to Washington from Seattle and changing jobs again, I spent the rest of the time immersed in mobile games. After March, apart from a few articles about games, I had almost no insights. I even put aside product development and entrepreneurship. I had a lot of free time, but I used it to enjoy the easily attainable sense of accomplishment that mobile games brought.

This year after year, there's not much to look back on or look forward to; I'll just digest my observations and experiences.

The purpose of writing a blog

In a year that was otherwise uneventful, one experience stands out in my memory.

At that time, after I published an article, a friend sent me a private message praising me, roughly saying: the article and my thoughts were well written, but unfortunately it didn't get many views.

This sentence made me rethink the purpose of my writing. In my profile, I've always kept the phrase: "I don't seek traffic, but rather kindred spirits." This phrase has become blurred in recent years, not because my original intention has changed, but because the environment these past few years has been extremely conducive to clouding my judgment.

In the past two years, the internet has been dominated by the concept of "traffic." Whether it's internet celebrities or various live streamers, everyone is vying for fans and traffic, even forming an entire industry chain, since the profits from monetizing traffic are substantial. This has created a significant misconception: that anyone with a name should have millions of followers. As for me? I don't seem particularly interested in this. The reasons are quite simple. First, I write purely out of enjoyment and sharing; I don't make money from it, and I never package or accept advertisements, so I have no interest in building followers or engaging in traffic marketing. Second, my purpose in writing is to help those in need. However, there's a threshold to "those in need." In my understanding, if something is being fed, it's likely not something people truly need. When people have a need, they think about how to find information. I simply want you to be able to find my information when you're looking for it—this is precisely why my articles rank highly in Google search results. Moreover, this "searching" process filters out some unnecessary listeners.

After thinking about it this way, it makes perfect sense when I look back at my friend's reply. In his eyes, page views are very important because of the environment, but in my eyes, as long as the article is good and people who need it can find it, I have already achieved my goal.

Unable to produce products

Lately, I've been struggling with something: can I still create a successful product? My current answer is: no. Hopefully, this answer will change in the future.

A successful product needs an audience, which means it needs a good market—either a large user base or high user value. A large user base requires catering to the broadest range of needs, while high user value necessitates a high-end approach and sophisticated packaging. The latter requires very stringent conditions, which I don't currently have the resources to address, so I won't discuss it further.

Why doesn't the former work?

The reason is that my life has become niche. Back in China, as an ordinary person who grew up with everyone, I had a deep understanding of everyone's lives. I could use my sensitivity to find needs and pain points. However, after going abroad, studying abroad, staying to work, changing jobs and getting promoted, I found that there are very few people around me who are similar to me. Moreover, few people can understand some of the ideas and concepts I put forward. Things made according to this line of thinking have no audience.

Then why not use a lower-dimensional attack?

My personality prevents me from doing this. When a better, more advanced solution is available, I'm unwilling to offer a solution that's destined to be outdated or flawed, even if that product solves everyone's existing problems. If I'm to pursue my previous dream, perhaps I need to overcome this.

Another reason is that finding a partner is harder these days. Success has become easier, the culture of making quick money is increasingly prevalent, and fewer and fewer people are willing to dedicate themselves to building a solid product, without even knowing if they can succeed. Of course, many things on the market have already been tried by others, which is also a significant factor, but I still believe that demand and opportunity always exist, so I don't think that's a reason.

The internal friction of 996

I've been wanting to bring this up for a while, but haven't had the time. Recently, it's been placed on the national agenda, so let's talk about it.

The recent 14-5 plan mentioned curbing the 996 work schedule, which is a good start. The biggest factor contributing to the 996 work schedule is the inaction of regulatory authorities. They ignore what is clearly illegal, or they are passively managing the situation—waiting for employees to report it. But how can employees risk their jobs, especially in such a competitive market?

Capital always pursues profit; without proactive control, it will act arbitrarily. The formation of the 996 work schedule has many factors, including those mentioned above, as well as the following:

Oversaturation of the labor market

I don't think this needs to be mentioned; just look at the population of those born in the 80s and 90s. This situation will gradually improve because the workforce is shrinking. When the cost of hiring a new employee exceeds the cost of retaining existing employees, capital will naturally choose to appease existing staff. Employees will then naturally have the confidence to speak up and protect their rights.

The industry is not high-end enough

This is actually quite obvious. Most employees working 996 are busy with development. Why do they have to develop so quickly? Because the industry isn't high-end enough, and the competition is too fierce. If A can make an app, B can too. So what do they compete on? Speed, of course! Whoever makes it first and captures the market has a huge advantage! This will change with industrial upgrading, but as of now, we haven't seen any trend of industrial upgrading.

Another point that reveals the relatively low-end nature of our industries is the "35-year-old phenomenon." Have you ever wondered why we don't hire people over 35? To a large extent, it's because companies need real labor, not systematic operations. People over 35 generally lack physical strength but have rich experience. Why don't we hire experienced people? Because current jobs don't require it! It's like warfare; what I need now are soldiers, not generals. A large number of soldiers charging in is enough; strategy? In the era of manpower-intensive, cold weapon warfare, it's not necessary yet.

Severe involution

This is very similar to the point above. If A makes something, B also needs to make something, otherwise they'll fall behind. Where does this anxiety come from? Compare domestic and foreign products and apps. Why are domestic ones so complex, with so many functions you can't even find them all? Why? Competition! A few years ago, we saw a very interesting phenomenon: when the internet entered an industry, all sorts of companies sprang up like mushrooms after rain, then many died out, eventually leading to a battle between two companies, often resulting in a merger. This gladiator-like competition, where the winner takes all, naturally drives them to work incredibly hard! Compared to the favor of capital, overtime pay and benefits are negligible. And products built with so much manpower are all very similar. If one company makes it, aren't the remaining 99 companies just doing repetitive work?

Why do so many people rush to capitalize on a new opportunity, even those who seem to be nobodies? Because opportunities are still scarce, and seeing others seize them and become rich overnight makes people restless and impatient.

Do you remember the story of the Jewish gas station? Let's revisit it:

In a bustling town, the first Jew opened a gas station. The second Jew, seeing that business was good, opened a supermarket for drivers who came to refuel. The third Jew, seeing that business was also good, opened a restaurant to solve the problem of meals for drivers who came to refuel. The fourth Jew, seeing that there was no place to stay, opened a hotel, which also did very well. In this way, all four Jews' businesses were very successful.

Let's look at the Chinese. The first Chinese man opened a gas station in the small town. Seeing that the business was booming, the second Chinese man also opened a gas station. The third Chinese man couldn't sit still and opened a gas station as well. Then many Chinese men came to open gas stations. Gradually, the business became worse and worse because there were only gas stations. There were no places to shop, no restaurants, and no accommodations. Slowly, the drivers stopped coming, and the small town became desolate.

Not strong enough

This isn't really the employees' fault. As mentioned before, they simply didn't have enough leverage. If the relevant departments and laws were sound, and the overall social atmosphere were positive, one person's refusal would prevent this from becoming a widespread problem. But the reality is quite the opposite. One person's opposition could cost them their job or even ruin their life. Who would be willing to take that risk? Take, for example, those recent whistleblowers who made public accusations. They started off with a lot of noise, but then they disappeared without a trace. Are they still doing well? And then there's the recent Ping An Insurance incident—ha!

The future of China and the United States

Since we've mentioned China's development, let me share my thoughts on the future of China-US relations. The conclusion is quite simple: as long as China's central leadership remains stable, it will undoubtedly lead the world in the 21st century, and the future belongs to East Asia, not the West. However, the US won't suddenly decline either; a duopoly is likely to persist for a considerable period.

Looking at the longer timeline, China is currently developing in a very good direction, and this trend is not expected to reverse in the near future. Basically, arguments about China's decline are based on political factors and ideology. While there are indeed some unstable factors in China, they are not enough to affect China's development and rise in the short term, and may even be a great asset.

And it is precisely because of political factors that the United States is destined to be surpassed by China. Although being surpassed sounds serious, the United States will not weaken all at once, but will progress slowly. It is like a 100-meter sprinter competing with a 10,000-meter runner running at a steady pace. This trend is very obvious.

Opportunities always come with risks. Whether to stay in the US or return to China is a personal choice, and barring unforeseen circumstances, I probably won't see a significant difference in my lifetime.